Climate Change

This chapter provides indicators of the effects of climate change on California's climate, forests, and rangelands.

Associated Indicators


Annual Average Precipitation – Departure from long term average by ecosystem units

Evaluate departure in average annual precipitation as a measure of climate change. Trends in precipitation patterns and amounts can have a large influence on forest health, productivity, and species distribution. Use climate data from downscaled Global Climate Models (GCM) to assess precipitation trends among ecosystem units. Indicator will evaluate both historic conditions and project future conditions.

Annual Average Temperature – Departure from long term average by ecosystem units.

Evaluate departure in air temperature by ecosystem units as a measure of climate warming. This will allow comparison of differing degrees of climate warming across forest ecosystems. Air Temperature is a direct indicator of climate change and can have impacts on forest and ecosystem health. Use climate data from downscaled Global Climate Models (GCM) to assess warming trends among ecosystem units. Indicator will evaluate both historic conditions and project future conditions.

Carbon sequestration rate

Carbon is sequestered/stored in plants and soil, removing it at least temporarily from the atmosphere. The rate of carbon sequestered can be estimated using satellite/remote sensing methods, or more directly measured at the plot scale in forests. When carbon emission rates exceed carbon sequestration rates, then net accumulation of carbon-containing gases in the atmosphere can result in global warming and climate change.

Carbon stocks on forestlands and in forest products

For a given time period, this indicator will spatially map changes in carbon stocks on forestlands where forests, forestland losses. forestland gains, and forest products are acting as: a) net sources of carbon dioxide through releases of carbon to the atmosphere, b) net sinks for carbon storage through the removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, or c) neither sources or sinks. Through the use of this indicator, forest managers, policy makers and the public will be able to see the changes in the carbon sink capacity on the state’s forestlands from the interaction over a given period of time of disturbance, land use change, forest management, and forest product manufacture efficiency and utilization. By comparing indicator results over successive time periods,

Change in vegetation distribution

Climate change has already brought changes to the distribution of plant communities and individual plant species in California. It is likely that continued climate change will exacerbate this trend. This indicator refers both to observed and predicted changes in individual and plant community distributions.

Conservation and Maintenance of Soil and Water Resources: Soil carbon

Global carbon cycling includes storage and release of organic and inorganic carbon from soil, which is the largest reservoir of carbon. Carbon is added to soil primarily through decomposition of dead plant material. Carbon is lost from soil through runoff and oxidation of soil carbon by chemical and biological processes. Because of its size, the soil carbon pool is one of the most important considerations in modeling carbon cycling as a cause of and in response to climate change.

Days over 90 degrees Fahrenheit (F)

Evaluate urban areas that have higher percent of days over 90 degrees that can contribute to urban heat islands. Tree canopies in urban settings provide shade and reduce air temperatures considerably. The number of days over 90 degrees is one way of measuring potentially harmful heat in urban settings that can lead to unhealthy air quality and a host of health ailments in sensitive groups.

Ecological Condition: Carbon Storage in Forests

This indicator refers to the amount of carbon stored in forest plants and soils. Carbon storage is an important part of the global carbon cycle and increasing carbon storage in forests has the potential to reduce climate change effects from anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases.