Climate Change

This chapter provides indicators of the effects of climate change on California's climate, forests, and rangelands.

Associated Indicators


Maintenance of Forest Contribution to Global Carbon Cycles: Change in forest carbon pools

Forest carbon is cycled through and stored in soil and above-ground vegetation. Carbon stocks or pools can increase in response to tree growth and vegetation decay into the soil and decrease in response to logging, oxidation of dead material and fire. One way that societies would like to mitigate the production of carbon-containing gases is through increased storage in forest carbon pools.

Predicted change in precipitation & variation

As the climate naturally varies and is forced by climate change, precipitation amounts and timing are likely to change. Climate change models suggest that, in the future, California will have less winter snow and more rain-on-snow events. Precipitation may also vary spatially compared to its current distribution. Because both natural processes and economic activities depend on a certain range of precipitation amounts and timing, these potentially new conditions could result in both ecosystem and economic disruptions.

Snow Pack – April 1st (percent of normal)

Evaluate water availability from snow pack. April 1st is considered to be the peak of snow accumulation and can be used as a benchmark. By comparing the April 1st snowpack from the current year against the historic average the indicator can be used to measure if the peak snow pack for the given reporting period is above or below the historic average. This gives an indication of future water supply and seasonable water availability; potential effects on forest vegetation.

Spring Runoff from Major Watersheds (April – July)

Evaluate impact of warmer climate conditions on spring runoff, timing of peak flows, and seasonal water availability. This is calculated as the percent of the total water year runoff derived in Spring (April – July). Spring warming releases water as snowmelt. Recent studies by DWR show a declining trend in Spring runoff that is indicative of warmer winters and earlier Spring warming. This has implications on water availability across a range of beneficial uses. In addition, it can lead to reduced base flows and that may lead to early drying of forest vegetation and effect wildfire conditions.

Summer Average Temperature – Departure from long term average by ecosystem units

Evaluate departure in air temperature by ecosystem units as a measure of climate warming. This will allow comparison of differing degrees of climate warming across forest ecosystems. Air Temperature during summer months is an indicator of heat stress and can have impacts on forest and ecosystem health. Use climate data from downscaled Global Climate Models (GCM) to assess warming trends among ecosystem units. Indicator will evaluate both historic conditions and project future conditions.

Total above ground carbon

Carbon is stored in woody material in forests and shrublands. Part of sequestered carbon will remain stored for decades and even centuries. The remainder will cycle as forests burn, plants die and decay, and plants naturally grow and respire. Increasing and maintaining the above-ground stock of carbon reduces the atmospheric load of carbon-containing gases.