California Forests and Rangelands: Proposed Indicators

Shows public access to USFS National Forests which contributes to increased social, cultural, and spiritual needs of Californians. Percent annual increase of road and trail right-of-ways.

The percent of people wanting to actively participating in cultural, social, or spiritual aspects of the environment outside of forests. Percent of urban residents developing programs and/or activities to plant, protect, and maintain their urban and community trees and forests.

A measure of people and houses living in or adjacent to wildland fuels. This is a measure of population potentially at risk, as well as exposure to wildfire from adjacent wildlands. Wildland includes all areas of hazardous fuels, which includes some areas within incorporated cities. Adjacency is defined by distance (using 30 meter cells) at risk of flying burning embers, by vegetation-based fuel type.

Population characteristics can be indicators of social change. This indicator describes in general terms who is now living in rural California. The indicator covers a broad range of demographic characteristics, including gender, race, age, education, and home ownership. Changes in rural areas’ number of inhabitants, population age structure (distribution), ethnic diversity and educational levels can signal whether in the near-term they are likely to do well (or at least hold their own) in the face of these challenging economic times, or if difficulties ahead seem more likely for these communities.

Number and area of exotic invasive plants that occur in California. Invasive, non-native plants damage California ecosystems by displacing native species, out-competing native plants, changing plant communities, and reducing the value of habitat for wildlife and stock.

Number of native and exotic pests that occur in California. Movement of native forest pests into new areas, and migration of non-native forest pests into California increase risks to forest land from forest pest damage. Non-native pests are of particular concern to ecosystem health due to the lack of natural enemies and built-in defenses for local host species.

Highlights areas most likely to show impacts from increases (or decreases) in population, based upon demographic projection models. Projected population growth can help point to areas warranting a close watch in terms of future new developments and their associated impacts to forest and rangelands. Areas forecast to continue growing at a fast rate may be more susceptible to large-scale land conversion and impacts from new development.

Document the array of vegetation types on rangeland including annual and perennial grasslands, wetlands, riparian, and oak woodlands. This indicator describes rangeland vegetation types and their area based on the most current data and describes trends in their extent over time.

Document the amount of rangeland that has been converted to urban and agricultural uses over the past 10 years. This indicator will measure changes in uses such as subdivision and conversion of rangeland to residential development. Future trends will be described based on information provided in other chapters of the assessment.

Describe the current ownership and use status of rangelands throughout the state. This indicator measures current ownership and how the land is being used. Ownership will be presented by vegetation type.

Estimate trends in total forage for rangelands by vegetation type. Total available forage, in units of Animal Unit Months (AUMs), on rangelands can serve as a proxy for productivity and relative ability to support livestock. Data may be presented by vegetation type.

Evaluates recent changes in population and the corresponding changes in potential intensity of human use and impacts on local and regional biosphere. Population can be a measure of the level of intensity of land use and human impacts on the local and regional landscapes. Residents have a set of well-defined daily needs, and obtaining these needs affects the locale in ways such as number of vehicle miles driven, road network needed, extent of housing and commercial development, utilities development (water storage and delivery, electrical grid, etc.). Changes in this indicator show where to expect increases (or in some cases decreases) in human impacts, due to the need for more infrastructure with increased numbers of people.

This provides a measure for the degree to which landowners are compensated for the provision of ecosystem services. This revenue could contribute to profitability of operations to keep lands in forest and range uses, for promoting management that emphasizes important ecosystem services, and for contributing to local economies. There are examples in California of programs that provide direct and/or indirect compensation to landowners for providing ecosystem services. Each of these provides a metric, which can be summed to get total dollar value.

The monetary value generated by the economic sector associated with recreation, outdoor education, and tourism. Recreation, outdoor education, and tourism are a product of forests that is consumed. The money generated from these industries contributes to the wellbeing of nearby communities.

Evaluate the likely shift in distributions of dominant tree species, due to projected climate changes. This would highlight areas of habitats apt to be strongly impacted by short and long-term changes, and at risk of conversion to other vegetation types, thus affecting the local and regional species composition and biodiversity.

(see Wildlife indicators)

Evaluate water availability from snow pack. April 1st is considered to be the peak of snow accumulation and can be used as a benchmark. By comparing the April 1st snowpack from the current year against the historic average the indicator can be used to measure if the peak snow pack for the given reporting period is above or below the historic average. This gives an indication of future water supply and seasonable water availability; potential effects on forest vegetation.

Evaluate impact of warmer climate conditions on spring runoff, timing of peak flows, and seasonal water availability. This is calculated as the percent of the total water year runoff derived in Spring (April – July). Spring warming releases water as snowmelt. Recent studies by DWR show a declining trend in Spring runoff that is indicative of warmer winters and earlier Spring warming. This has implications on water availability across a range of beneficial uses. In addition, it can lead to reduced base flows and that may lead to early drying of forest vegetation and effect wildfire conditions.

To track the extent of forests that have characteristics of late successional old growth. Late-seral/old growth forests have unique ecological characteristics and are often biologically diverse. They are home to many species, including some that are listed as rare, threatened and endangered. Forest structure and composition with multi-layered canopy, diverse tree species, older dominant trees and woody debris can be tracked through FIA data.

Evaluate departure in air temperature by ecosystem units as a measure of climate warming. This will allow comparison of differing degrees of climate warming across forest ecosystems. Air Temperature during summer months is an indicator of heat stress and can have impacts on forest and ecosystem health. Use climate data from downscaled Global Climate Models (GCM) to assess warming trends among ecosystem units. Indicator will evaluate both historic conditions and project future conditions.