Fire weather describes the climatic conditions that contribute to fire ignition, rate of spread, and intensity. Hot, dry, windy conditions are the most likely to foster fire ignition, spread and high intensity. Climate change may change fire weather conditions in forested landscapes.
This indicator will provide information in both tabular and map form on forest fuel conditions and progress in managing forest fuel conditions. Both the public and policy makers want to know where and the how much of the state's forests are in a condition that is resilient to catastrophic wildfires and, over time, is the condition improving or worsening.
Frequent disturbance of forested areas by logging can limit forest productivity, reduce biodiversity, increase soil compaction and erosion, and change nutrient and fire dynamics. Long cycles of artificial disturbance (>100 years) are less likely to negatively impact natural processes and characteristics.
Evaluate changing climate influences on daily fire conditions that are associated with large fire development. The pattern and occurrence of severe fire weather directly influences the likelihood of large fires. We will evaluate a reconstructed 10-year climate data set expressed at 2km grids for patterns and trends in frequency of severe fire days as expressed in terms of the modified Fosberg Weather Index (mFWI) that accounts for a drought correction.
Evaluate changing climate conditions on large fire activity. Trends in climate patterns impact the length of fire season and consequently the duration of fire threat conditions. Impacts of increasing fire season length are reflected in trends in fire activity and in costs of manning fire stations for longer periods. We will evaluate this indicator by looking at frequency of fires greater than 10 acres by date.
Fires naturally occur in most forests. Wildfires are fires that were not intentionally set to manage vegetation and are usually un-controlled. Naturally-occurring wildfires are good for most forest ecosystems, reducing crowding of small trees and under-growth, encouraging nutrient cycling, and in some cases stimulating seed germination.
Natural hazards (e.g., fire, flood, drought) often cost government agencies (and private parties) as they try to prevent, mitigate, and recover from the impacts of these hazards. Tracking the cost of assisting the public impacted by floods helps inform the cost-effectiveness of different policies. Tracking the cost of preventing, fighting, and recovering from fires similarly helps to understand what policies are most cost-effective and economical.
Wildfires can have negative consequences that contribute to costs and health impacts. These include revegetation of burned areas and impacts of smoke on people with pulmonary conditions.
Wildfires (and prescribed fires) can have positive consequences for ecosystems and communities. One positive consequence is that natural processes adapted to fires will benefit. Another is that vegetation mass will be reduced, reducing the fuels available for future fires.
Evaluate current modern-era fire regime impacts on dominant vegetation. Vegetation Burn Severity measures the degree of mortality of the dominant species present prior to the fire. Severity is an integral component (along with fire frequency/mean fire return interval) of fire regime – the intrinsic pattern of fire occurrence and effects that occur in unique vegetation ecosystems.
