Population Growth and Urban Development

This chapter deals primarily with the effects of urban area expansion and population increase on forest and rangelands.

Associated Indicators


Land Coverage and Population (historic trends in population, forested land, land cover, and impervious cover in the watershed)

Population growth and increased land consumption per household jointly lead to increases in urban and other developed surfaces in watersheds. Increases in population often indicates increased land and resource consumption and reduction in natural and agricultural lands. Changes in land cover can include changes in extent of different types and appearance of new types in a watershed. Forest cover can increase with restoration or afforestation of previously agricultural or barren areas. Impervious cover includes any paved or developed surface that prevents surface water penetration into the ground.

New Housing Starts

Evaluates level of new (and recent historical) development in counties and regions. Data on new housing starts shows the intensity of development, recent and historical, by location (county, region, etc.) across the state. These are where developers are expecting (or expecting to lure) new inhabitants to live, and also show potential impacts to the land use and the greater land base, particularly from the lower density types of housing.

Number and Activity Level of Land Use Planning and Conservation Groups

Number of groups (NGOs, agency cooperatives, etc.) heavily engaged in activities related to land conservation and regional planning. Regions with active groups involved in planning for conservation of wildland values may be more likely to implement development that is compatible with maintaining regional working landscapes, and local core forest and rangeland resources.

Projected Population Trends

Highlights areas most likely to show impacts from increases (or decreases) in population, based upon demographic projection models. Projected population growth can help point to areas warranting a close watch in terms of future new developments and their associated impacts to forest and rangelands. Areas forecast to continue growing at a fast rate may be more susceptible to large-scale land conversion and impacts from new development.

Recent Population Trends

Evaluates recent changes in population and the corresponding changes in potential intensity of human use and impacts on local and regional biosphere. Population can be a measure of the level of intensity of land use and human impacts on the local and regional landscapes. Residents have a set of well-defined daily needs, and obtaining these needs affects the locale in ways such as number of vehicle miles driven, road network needed, extent of housing and commercial development, utilities development (water storage and delivery, electrical grid, etc.). Changes in this indicator show where to expect increases (or in some cases decreases) in human impacts, due to the need for more infrastructure with increased numbers of people.